Confidential · Client Access · Modeled screening
Acquisition Risk Engine
One screen for the question every committee actually asks: what could make this deal go wrong? Live CMS facility data, your deal terms, and your market read — scored across seven risk domains with the weights disclosed. Modeled screening only; the documentation layer is verified by chart-level review.
Framework
Seven risk domains — best of the landscape, one screen
Steals the useful idea from each competitor category and fuses them: AHLA’s identify-and-rate structure, NIC-style market viability (entered, not asserted), Trella-style referral concentration, cost-report credit metrics, operator staffing signals, and the documentation layer only chart review can verify.
| Domain | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory & survey | 22% | Live CMS — ratings, fines, denials, SFF/abuse overrides |
| Financial & credit | 18% | Your deal terms — margin, DSCR, entry pricing |
| Staffing stability | 16% | Live CMS PBJ — HPRD, RN, turnover, admin churn |
| Census & occupancy | 12% | Live CMS — beds vs average daily census |
| Market posture | 12% | Your NIC-style read — occupancy, pipeline, MA, referrals |
| Documentation & revenue quality | 12% | MODELED from public proxies — verified only by chart review |
| Ownership & transition | 8% | Live CMS — recent CHOW, ownership complexity |
Missing inputs are excluded and weights renormalize. Special Focus floors regulatory at 90; CMS abuse icon at 80. Composite band: Low / Moderate / Elevated / High.
Tool · Model v1.0
Run a screening
Live CMS Care Compare and, when available, the latest SNF cost-report net patient revenue (historical filing — labeled, never silently treated as T12). Enter deal terms, choose a deal thesis (stabilized / value-add / turnaround), and calculate. The Bottom Line card writes a thesis-aware screening recommendation with conditions, diligence sequence, and copy-as-memo.
Basis & limitations. Facility data is retrieved live from the CMS Provider Data Catalog (Care Compare — nursing homes) at the time of screening; deal and market inputs are supplied by the user and are not verified. The composite score is a modeled screening heuristic with disclosed weights (v1.0) — it is not an audit, a rating, credit or investment advice, or a substitute for professional diligence, and must not be the basis of any transaction decision. No PHI is requested, accessed, or stored. Documentation-layer estimates are modeled from public proxies only; verification requires chart-level analysis performed with facility authorization. See Disclosures.
After the screen
The layer this screen cannot read
NIC MAP tells you if the market is viable. This engine tells you what could go wrong on the public and deal layers. Whether the target’s revenue is documentation-supported is established only by chart-level review — the engagement this screen is designed to scope.